Photo : The Guardian
22 June 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #234
IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan
French Parliamentary elections: Three issues
On 19 June, French president Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition with a difference of 44 seats lost in the legislative elections. When compared to the other party’s the coalition secured the largest share with 245 seats, but to form a majority government it needs 289. President Macron will now face a challenge in meeting the demands of his opponents and winning the support of potential members of parliament from Republican, far-right, and left-wing parties.
Election results: The divided majority
France reformed the term of presidency from seven years to five years in 2002 and follows a tradition of conducting legislative elections weeks after presidential election. The elections are of national level in nature but organized by the local constituencies, the National Assembly contains 577 seats in total with 11 nationals outside France. Macron’s party previously held 350 staging the majority. The opponent parties, Nupes consisting of socialists, communists, radical left, and the greens from the left-wing secured second with 131 seats, and the far-right National Rally (RN) alliance parties came third with 89 seats. Apart from the above, the Les Republicans could gain only 64 which is low compared to previous years. The reason is low turnout from young and middle-income households.
Proposal and demands
Upon the election loss, Macron’s domestic reform agenda on addressing the cost of living, raising of pension age, and food vouchers will be put to test for Parliamentary approval. Most importantly the position of prime minister Elisabeth Borne is under threat as the Parliament can plan a no-confidence motion. To form the government, rebuild confidence and not let France slip into political chaos, Macron has to ensure meeting the demands of the opponent’s majority and push his reform agenda. Till now the key demands kept by left-green are lowering the retirement age from 62 to 60, increasing the minimum wages to 15 per cent, a freeze of the price of essential commodities, and creating more jobs.
Domestic and regional impact
At the domestic level, the power is set to shuffle between the presidency and parliament challenging the political stability and reform make. Although the word compromise and French parliament are far-off, it remains in Macron’s hands to negotiate with the other parties to form the majority government. On the other hand, if the left-wing alliance and far-right fail to cooperate in the process, it will lead to a political deadlock resulting in snap elections.
At the regional level, in line with the fear of the EU and member states which favoured Macron’s win will have to adapt to the new situation, where the far-right and hard left are rising. France might no longer be a spearhead to unite the member states to settle regional issues.
References
Tracy Mcnicoll, “Macron’s bloc falls short of absolute majority, leftist coalition second, large gains for far right,” France24, 19 June 2022
Paul Kirby, “France elections: Political uncertainty as Macron party slumps,” BBC, 20 June 2022
Paul Kirby, “French National Assembly vote decides battle between Macron and left,” BBC, 20 June 2022
“French parliamentary election: What you need to know,” Deutsche Welle, 11 June 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 118
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 21 June, Luhansk region’s governor, Serhiy Gaidai said that Russia’s forces had captured more settlements near the twin cities of Sievierodonetsk, and Lysychansk. The regional governor of Kharkiv, Oleh Synegubov reported that 15 people were killed in the region because of Russian shelling.
President Zelenskyy in his address to African Union leaders spoke about the growing global food crisis and mentioned the condition of Africa. He said that Africa will be one of the worst-hit countries if immediate corridors for the export of Ukraine’s grains are not restored. Russia has been holding Africa hostage over food shortage and rising prices of fuel, fertilizers, oil, and grains. Zelenskyy also met with the prime minister of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel, who was visiting Kyiv. He thanked Bettel for the assistance provided in terms of hosting Ukraine’s refugees and allocating 15 per cent of the national budget for Ukraine.
On 21 June, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported that they have detained a senior official in the Secretariat of the Cabinet of Ministers and a department head at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. This was because they were suspected to be a part of a Russian spy network. The SBU said: “These officials passed on various intelligence information to the enemy: from the state of our defence capability to arrangements at the state border and personal data of Ukrainian law enforcement officers.”
The Russia-backed separatist region of Donetsk People’s Republic are now allowing foreigners to sign up for military service in DPR’s interior ministry troops. These contracts are valid for one year, but may therefore be extended. In the Luhansk People’s Republic, the Joint Control and Coordination Center said that Ukraine had fired Tochka-U missiles at the settlements of Zimogorye and Stakhanov.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
The Interfax news agency reported that the two men from the US, fighting for Ukraine, had been captured in the Donetsk People's Republic. They also showed video interviews of the pair. However, Kremlin said that they did not know the location of the “mercenaries”
On 21 June, the Chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, Mikhail Mizintsev said that around 21,000 people have been evacuated from dangerous situations in Ukraine, especially from the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic.
Russia’s Dmitry Muratov had won the Nobel Peace Prize along with Maria Ressa of the Philippines, in 2021. The Nobel Prize committee had said that it was for their efforts to safeguard freedom of expression, seen as a precondition of democracy and peace. Muratov recently auctioned his Nobel Medal for a record USD 103.5 million. The money will be given to UNICEF for the humanitarian aid for children from Ukraine who have been displaced.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 21 June, the US attorney general, Merrick Garland reiterated that they are committed to identifying, arresting, and prosecuting Russia’s soldiers with war crimes records. Garlan met with Ukraine’s prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova and announced a team to look into war crimes accountability. This new team will assist Ukraine with criminal prosecution, fact-finding, forensics of human rights abuse, war crimes, and other atrocities.
A military delegation from Turkey will go to Russia to discuss the export of Ukraine’s grains from the Black Sea. Ankara has so far spoken to Moscow and the UN, but final approval of the plan has to come after a four-way meeting between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN. This meeting is soon scheduled to be held in Istanbul. Top EU diplomats also met in Luxembourg and warned about the impending risk of famine. EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, referred to Russia’s blockade of ports and said that it was Russia that should be blamed for this global grain crisis.
On the same day, the self-propelled howitzers sent by Germany arrived in Ukraine. This marks the first delivery of heavy weapons promised by Berlin. The arrival of the Panzerhaubitze 2000 was announced by the Defence Minister, Oleksii Reznikov on social media. The head of Ukraine's president's office posted a list of all the other weapons that have been pledged by Germany; it includes 30 Gepard tanks and three MARS II multiple rocket launchers, and 500 shoulder-fired Stinger missiles.
Lithuania banned the transporting of any goods sanctioned by the EU from Russia to Kaliningrad through rail routes. This is a problem for Russia, as Kaliningrad holds Russia’s Baltic Sea Fleet and also the deployment-ready Iskander missiles. This move has naturally irked Russia, who warned that Lithuania will have to face a “serious negative impact.” Lithuania has also said that it will not be looking toward NATO for support if Russia threatens any military action against Lithuania.
Estonia summoned the Russian Ambassador over a possible airspace violation. A Russian MI8 came into Estonia’s airspace without permission and failed to respond to signals or transponders. This is the second time in less than two weeks that a similar event has occurred.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 21 June, the 19th meeting of Kazakhstan-EU Cooperation was conducted where Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdy discussed the ways in which they can avoid the spillover of the war in Ukraine in their country. Catherine Colonna, the foreign minister of France represented the European Union. Kazakhstan’s Minister mentioned that it was necessary to maintain the momentum of positive relations with the EU. They also spoke about how to prevent the influence EU sanctions imposed on Russia, on Kazakhstan’s companies.
References
Samantha Lockand Léonie Chao-Fong, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 119 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 22 June 2022
“Russian forces capture several more settlements in Ukraine's Luhansk region,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
“At least 15 civilians killed in Kharkiv region by Russian shelling – governor,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
“Ukraine president says Africa is a hostage in the war with Russia,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
“President of Ukraine met with the Prime Minister of Luxembourg in Kyiv,” President of Ukraine, 21 June 2022
“Ukraine detains senior public figures suspected of spying for Russia,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
“DPR allows foreigners to sign contracts for military service,” TASS, 21 June 2022
“Ukrainian army fires Tochka-U missiles at two settlements in LPR,” TASS, 21 June 2022
“Kremlin says it does not know location of captured U.S. 'mercenaries',” Reuters, 21 June 2022
“Over 21,000 people evacuated from Ukraine, DPR, LPR to Russia in past day,” TASS, 21 June 2022
Lidia Kelly, “Russian journalist's Nobel Peace Prize fetches record $103.5 million at auction to aid Ukraine children,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
Sarah N. Lynch and Katharine Jackson, “U.S. attorney general vows to help track down, prosecute Russian war criminals,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
“Turkish team to discuss Black Sea grain corridor in Russia this week –sources,” Reuters, 21 June 2022
Bernd Riegert, “EU tries to get grain from Ukraine as Russia's war drags on,” Deutsche Welle, 21 June 2022
“First heavy weapons from Germany arrive in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 21 June 2022
Natalia Zinets, “Moscow fumes over Lithuania rail ban to Russian region,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
Janis Laizans , “Lithuanians near Kaliningrad put faith in NATO after Russia's threats,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
David Ljunggren, “Estonia protests to Russia over airspace violation as Baltic tensions rise,” Reuters, 22 June 2022
“Kazakhstan, EU discuss preventing spillover effect of sanctions on Russia,” TASS, 21 June 2022
Monir Ghaedi, “Fighting a 'battle between democracy and authoritarianism',” Deutsche Welle, 21 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
REGIONAL
Five individuals to sue their governments at human rights court
On 21 June, five individuals affected by floods, forest fires, and hurricanes caused by climate change filed a case to the European court of human rights (ECHR) against their government’s membership in the energy charter treaty (ECT). The claimants are suing 12 ECHR member states, including France, Germany, and the UK who have actively used the ECT. The claimants say that participation in the ECT infringes the European Convention on Human Rights' rights to life and to respect for private and family life. The treaty, which has about 55 members, including the UK, Japan, and EU states, has been seen as a serious threat to the Paris Agreement because it could allow firms to sue governments for compensation for the early closure of coal, oil, and gas plants worth an estimated EUR 1.3 trillion until 2050. (Jennifer Rankin and Arthur Neslen “Young people go to European court to stop treaty that aids fossil fuel investors,” The Guardian, 21 June 2022)
Panel at Global Media Forum discusses Russian propaganda amid the war in Ukraine
On 21 June, a panel discussion in the 2022 Global Media Forum organized by Deutsche Well at its headquarters in Bonn discussed how the conflict in Ukraine has deepened divisiveness and tensions that put democracy and free speech in jeopardy. The panelist was the exiled journalist from Russia, and Ukraine, the German culture and media commissioner, and the EU transparency and values commissioner. Zygar stated that the Kremlin's crackdown on independent journalists had, within a decade, aided the dissemination of misinformation and divided political debate, making it simple for the state to isolate and suppress critical voices. Further, Jourova called for stricter measures for regulating big tech firms as they now make money by spreading false information. (Monir Ghaedi, “Fighting a 'battle between democracy and authoritarianism’,” Deutsche Welle, 21 June 2022)
Europe consumes an increased amount of cooking oil for vehicles amid rising prices
On 22 June, the Guardian reported that Europe and the UK are consuming 17,000 tons of cooking oil to run vehicles every day. According to the study, palm and soy oil, largely from South America and Indonesia, is also burnt for fuel at a rate of additional 14 million bottles every day. Despite the fact that their effects on the environment may be much worse than those of fossil fuels, 58 percent of the rapeseed oil and nine per cent of the sunflower oil consumed in Europe between 2015 and 2019 were burned in vehicles and trucks. Another study released by the Green Alliance on 20 June found that an additional 3.5 million people could be fed each year if the land used to produce the UK's bioethanol were instead allocated to food crops. This would reduce the impact of global undernourishment brought on by the conflict in Ukraine by 25-40 per cent. (Arthur Nelson, “Europe and UK pour 17,000 tons of cooking oil into vehicles a day,” The Guardian, 22 June 2022)
ENVIRONMENT
New WTO deal to limit overfishing hailed despite flaws
On 21 June, conservationists hailed the recent World Trade Organization’s (WTO) agreement to end subsidies that cause overfishing after 20 years of failed negotiations. Despite being scaled down from its original objectives, Pew Charitable Trusts, which has long advocated for the elimination of such subsidies, said the new agreement represented a turning point in eliminating a major cause of overfishing. The agreement establishes a worldwide framework that restricts financial support for high seas fishing, overfished populations, and illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. It lays the groundwork to incorporate other subsidies by including steps to increase openness and accountability for governments over how they subsidize the sector. However, the agreement does not prohibit the use of public funds by governments to subsidize either operating expenses, such as gasoline, or capital expenditures, such as the modernization and replacement of fishing fleets' engines. These increase overfishing, favor bigger vessels, and artificially lower operational costs for the fishing sector. (Karen McVeigh, “First WTO deal on fishing subsidies hailed as historic despite 'big holes', The Guardian, 21 June 2022)